The global fertilizer market is currently facing its most severe disruption since 2022. While the sector has been under pressure for quite some time, developments over the past few weeks have pushed the market into a new phase of uncertainty. A combination of geopolitical tensions, disrupted trade routes, elevated energy prices, restricted export volumes and rising logistics costs is creating a highly unstable environment.

This situation does not only affect producers, distributors and growers. It affects the entire food chain. Fertilizers remain a vital link between energy, crop production and food security.

The market was already under pressure before the recent escalation

To understand the seriousness of the current situation, it is important to note that the fertilizer market entered 2026 in an already tense position. In many segments, prices were already above the levels seen one year earlier, and market sentiment was clearly leaning towards further upward pressure rather than correction.

One of the main reasons was China’s export policy. China has traditionally played a major role in stabilizing global phosphate markets, but export volumes declined significantly in 2025. In addition, the country made clear that urea exports would remain restricted in order to prioritize domestic food security. While understandable from a national perspective, this has left a substantial gap in the global supply balance.

At the same time, Europe has continued to face relatively high natural gas prices. This remains highly relevant for nitrogen fertilizers such as urea, ammonia and UAN, as natural gas is a key feedstock in production. As a result, European production capacity has remained below normal levels.

In short, the market was already vulnerable. The events of late February and March have only intensified that fragility.

Why the Gulf region is so important to the fertilizer industry

The Strait of Hormuz is widely known as a strategic route for oil and gas. What is less widely understood is how critical the same corridor is for the global fertilizer trade.

The Gulf region combines three strategic advantages: abundant natural gas reserves, well-developed industrial infrastructure, and direct shipping access to some of the largest agricultural import markets in the world, including India, Brazil and North Africa. Countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait therefore play a central role in the export of urea, ammonia, sulphur and phosphate-related raw materials.

Sulphur deserves particular attention. It is not only an essential nutrient for crops, but also a critical raw material in the production of sulphuric acid. That acid is required to convert phosphate rock into plant-available phosphate fertilizers. In other words, disruptions in sulphur supply do not only affect direct trade flows, but also phosphate fertilizer production worldwide.

A significant share of global seaborne trade in urea, sulphur, ammonia and phosphates passes through the Strait of Hormuz. When that route is disrupted, the effects are felt immediately across international markets.

The market shifted rapidly at the end of February

The recent escalation in the Middle East has had an immediate impact on fertilizer markets. Disruptions to shipping routes in and around the Gulf quickly translated into higher prices, supply concerns and greater uncertainty in procurement and delivery planning.

What followed was not only a response to actual supply disruption, but also a strong risk-based reaction from the market. Once producers, traders and buyers begin to price in uncertainty around availability and logistics, price formation changes rapidly. That is exactly what we are seeing today.

The impact is broader than physical shipments alone. LNG-related disruptions have also affected nitrogen production outside the Gulf, especially in markets dependent on imported gas. This has turned the current situation into a wider supply chain issue rather than a purely regional event.

What are prices doing?

Price increases are broad-based and affect several fertilizer groups at the same time. That makes this disruption fundamentally different from a temporary movement in just one nutrient market.

Urea has been the most affected product so far. In several markets, prices have risen sharply compared to pre-escalation levels. Ammonia has also moved significantly higher. DAP and MAP have followed the same direction, partly because of tightness in sulphur supply and the indirect impact on phosphate production outside the Gulf. Sulphur itself was already trading at elevated levels earlier this year and has now become even more difficult to source.

Potash has been relatively less affected, mainly because its supply base is less directly dependent on the Gulf region. Even so, the wider uncertainty in energy, freight and global trade continues to influence sentiment across all fertilizer markets.

For growers and distributors, this means that input costs have changed considerably in a short period of time. In markets with tight margins, this directly affects purchasing decisions, application strategies and timing.

Why this crisis is heavier than earlier market disruptions

What makes the current situation especially challenging is the combination of multiple risk factors at the same time.

The market was already dealing with restricted Chinese exports, expensive European gas, and tightness in several raw material segments. On top of that, the recent geopolitical escalation has introduced additional freight pressure, higher insurance premiums, logistical uncertainty and renewed volatility in procurement.

CBAM-related cost pressure within the European Union is also adding to the overall complexity. That means the market is not responding to one single event, but to a stack of structural and short-term pressures happening simultaneously.

Weather remains another important variable. If reduced fertilizer availability or higher prices are combined with difficult growing conditions in major agricultural regions, the impact on crop performance becomes even more significant.

Three possible scenarios for the rest of 2026

Looking ahead, three broad scenarios appear possible.

In a positive scenario, diplomatic efforts succeed in easing tensions and major shipping routes reopen more fully in the short term. If that happens, fertilizer prices may partially correct during the second half of the year, although a full return to previous levels remains unlikely.

The most realistic scenario at this stage appears to be partial normalization. In that case, trade continues, but under higher costs, tighter conditions and ongoing uncertainty. Prices would then remain structurally above pre-crisis levels, with higher freight, insurance and raw material costs built into the market.

In a more negative scenario, disruptions continue for a longer period and production infrastructure in the region comes under further pressure. That would likely lead to another sharp upward move in prices and a growing risk of physical supply shortages in several markets.

What this means in the longer term

Regardless of which scenario unfolds, one conclusion is already clear: this crisis will accelerate structural change in the global fertilizer market.

Countries and regions that depend heavily on one supply origin will increasingly focus on supplier diversification, local production and supply security. Within Europe, discussions around strategic fertilizer resilience are likely to intensify further.

In the longer term, alternative production routes such as green ammonia may gain momentum. However, these are medium- to long-term developments. They will not solve the immediate market imbalance. In the short term, the industry remains highly dependent on geopolitical stability, energy pricing and the availability of global logistics capacity.

Our view on the current situation

At present, the fertilizer market is being driven not only by confirmed supply disruptions, but also by uncertainty. That makes the current environment especially difficult to navigate. A sudden de-escalation could trigger equally sharp price corrections. However, as long as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and wider regional developments remains in place, upward risk continues to outweigh downward potential.

For producers, distributors and professional end users, this means flexibility, timing and clear communication are more important than ever. Market conditions may change quickly, and purchasing decisions increasingly need to take raw material volatility, freight movements and delivery uncertainty into account.

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Fertilizer Market Outlook 2026: What growers should prepare for

The fertilizer market forecast 2026 is already on the minds of many growers. As the year comes to an end and preparations for the new season begin, the key question is clear: what will fertilizer prices do next year? To help our partners prepare, we share a realistic and data-based forecast built on our own market experience and independent international sources.

Q4 2025
For the remainder of 2025, raw material prices are expected to stay mostly stable. A small increase in nitrogen and phosphate cannot be excluded, but no major price shocks are expected before winter.

2026: Global stabilization, European pressure
International sources forecast that global fertilizer prices will begin to stabilise in 2026. However, the fertilizer market forecast 2026 for Europe looks different: prices are expected to remain firm due to regulatory pressure and supply restrictions that are not reflected in the global average.

CBAM carbon pricing for fertilizer imports begins on 1 January 2026.
According to Rabobank, this may result in:
• 10–20% higher costs for ammonia
• 10–15% higher costs for urea
• 2–5% higher costs for DAP
The exact impact depends on supplier emissions and trade routes.

EU tariffs on Russian fertilizers have been active since July 2025.
Reuters reports that these tariffs are pushing prices upward, and buyers are already switching to more expensive suppliers to secure stock.

Energy prices, especially natural gas, remain a cost driver for nitrogen fertilizers.
Demand remains strong, and global restrictions and shifting export flows continue to limit availability.

 

Even if global prices soften or stabilise, these European regulations and supply dynamics may lead to a different outcome for growers inside the EU.

Expected market situation in 2026

Product (EU import perspective 2026)	Global trend 2026	EU regulatory impact	Expected effect in EU
Urea / Ammonium Nitrate (N)	Stabilizing	Higher due to CBAM and Russian tariffs	Flat to increasing
DAP / MAP (P)	Forecast –8%	Moderate CBAM impact	Likely flat
Potash (K)	Flat	Limited CBAM effect, logistics remain risk	Flat, possible upward risk

Sources: World Bank Commodity Outlook 2025/2026, Rabobank 2025, Reuters, S&P Global.

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Timing is everything

By October, the turf season begins to split: some courses slow down, others stay busy. But beneath every fairway, green, or pitch, the same challenge emerges—how to protect turf nutrition through winter and make sure growth restarts cleanly in spring.

That preparation begins now.
A single fall application of a 4-month controlled-release fertilizer (CRF) can make the difference between a sluggish comeback and a smooth, early lift-off when temperatures rise again.

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The science behind it: temperature-responsive nutrition.

Our Durable® coating technology adapts naturally to soil temperature.
As autumn progresses and soil cools toward 7–10 °C, nutrient diffusion through the coating slows dramatically. That means the product “waits” with the turf. Feeding less when growth is minimal.

Then, as soon as the soil warms again, the release rate accelerates in sync with turf demand.
The result?

• Minimal nutrient loss in winter, even under wet conditions.
• Balanced feeding, without the common peaks and dips of conventional fertilizers.
• Consistent early color and growth once spring returns.

Why choose a 4-month CRF?

Because it’s perfectly tuned to bridge the coldest period of the year.
Apply in fall, and your turf carries the nutrients safely through winter, ready to fuel early spring growth. It’s a low-effort, high-impact strategy that saves labor, reduces washout risk, and keeps turf health stable during dormancy.

It’s not about feeding more. It’s about feeding smarter.

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One principle, different climates.

Europe has no single “perfect” application date.
The 4-month CRF adapts to local soil temperature, not the calendar. But here’s a practical guide:

Region	Best Application Window
Northern / North-Eastern Europe	Mid October
Central / Western Europe	Late October – Early November
Southern Europe	November – Early December

The key? Let soil temperature fine-tune your timing.

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The payoff: a faster start in spring.

When the mowers roll out again, courses treated in autumn will already show stronger recovery, denser color, and fewer uneven patches.
That’s the Durable® advantage—science that works with nature’s rhythm, not against it.

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We are excited to announce that Mivena’s fertilizer packaging has officially received the UN certification! This important milestone confirms that our packaging meets strict international standards for safety, quality, and environmental protection. In this blog post, we’ll explain what this certification involves and why it is essential for our customers and the agricultural sector.

What is UN Certification for Packaging and Why is it Important?

The UN certification, also known as the UN mark, is an internationally recognized standard that ensures packaging materials are suitable for the safe transport of “dangerous goods.” This certification is particularly vital for products regulated under ADR (Accord européen relatif au transport international des marchandises dangereuses par route), which includes certain types of fertilizers. By obtaining this certification, Mivena demonstrates its commitment to providing safe and compliant packaging solutions for hazardous materials.

What Does UN Certification Mean for Mivena and Our Customers?

Achieving the UN certification for packaging allows Mivena to reinforce its commitment to safety, sustainability, and innovation. It ensures that our products comply with the highest international standards for the transport of fertilizers, offering reliable packaging solutions that meet stringent safety and environmental requirements.

For our customers, this means confidence in using packaging that provides maximum protection during transport and storage. Our UN-certified packaging reduces the risks associated with transporting dangerous goods, helping to create a safer and more efficient supply chain.

Supporting Sustainable Practices and Reliable Transport Solutions

At Mivena, we are dedicated to innovation and continuous improvement in all our processes and products. By adhering to UN certification standards, we support sustainable practices and contribute to the global efforts in reducing environmental impact. This certification is a crucial step in our ongoing commitment to maintaining the highest standards of safety and sustainability in the fertilizer industry.

Learn More About UN Certification and Its Benefits

If you would like to know more about what the UN certification entails and why it is so important for the industry, read our detailed article here.

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See translation below:

Grow-Cote Plus (Horti-Cote Plus), the first coated depot fertilizer on the market with a proven biodegradable coating

Clear trend towards sustainable and environmentally friendly products.

The trend towards products that are as sustainable and environmentally friendly as possible was also clearly evident in the fertilizer sector at IPM 2024. The two main topics for manufacturers were the development of biodegradable coated fertilizer coatings and the increasing demand for organic fertilizers.

In demand: degradable coated fertilizer (CRF) coatings
Since the coatings of traditional depot/coated fertilizers are classified as microplastics, they have been criticized for many years. The EU Fertilising Products Regulation of 2019 therefore stipulates that the casings of depot fertilizers that have EU approval must be biodegradable from July 2026 onwards. Degradation must be 90% within four years of the fertilizer being used. What is new is that the REACH Regulation of September 2023 stipulates that this biodegradability of fertilizer coatings will also become a requirement at national level from October 2028 onwards.

However, the relevant test method for biodegradability is not yet known, and will only be defined and published next summer 2024. As a result, there are still no coated/depot fertilizers that demonstrably meet the legal requirements for the degradability of their coatings as such. However, various test methods already exist on which the EU criteria are likely to be based on. For example, these include the methods according to the ISO 17556 and ASTM-D 5988 standards.

Degradable depot fertilizers
The Dutch depot fertilizer manufacturer Mivena announced that the “Durable” casing of its depot fertilizer Grow-Cote (=Horti-Cote) has passed the ASTM-D 5988 test for biodegradability and that it therefore expected it to meet the EU requirements. As such, this would make it the only depot fertilizer currently on the market whose coating is proven to be biodegradable.

The other manufacturers of coated depot fertilizers are working flat out as well on biodegradable casings, with corresponding prototypes from Osmocote and Plantacote undergoing practical tests at several test facilities at the moment, including in trial stations in Ellerhoop and Bad Zwischenahn.

New depot fertilizers
ICL draws attention to the depot fertilizer Osmocote 5, the “fifth generation” of Osmocote products. Mivena offers Grow-Cote Plus High N 18-5-10+Sp as a new depot fertilizer, whose increased nitrogen content enables particularly good growth results to be achieved. Plantacote N. V. has recently added Plantacote Boron 1-6-0 (+12% boron) to its range – a specialty product for crops requiring boron. Trials are planned to test for which plant species this fertilizer is to be recommended. The Haifa Group reports great customer interest in its coated urea CoteN, which is interesting for balancing the nitrogen immobilization of peat-free substrates, for example.

Organic fertilizers
Hauert focuses primarily on organic fertilizers, as mineral products are not an option for many customers. In the municipal sector, for example, the cities of Munich, Zurich and Bern have decided to only use products with organic approval. This means that mineral fertilizers are no longer an option for them.

For lawns, DCM offers the organic-mineral fertilizer Liquid Green 8-0-4 (+2% Fe) with iron chelate, which displaces moss and – unlike fertilizers with iron sulphate – does not cause “rust stains” on stones.

For more even water absorption of base layers and substrates, DCM offers Intro 2.0, the first wetting agent with organic certification, which is required by more and more local authorities in addition to organic farms.

Methylene urea fertilizer
With Tardit 40, Hauert also has a new methylene urea fertilizer in its range, characterized by a particularly good nitrogen utilization rate of over 80% within three months.

Collagen fertilizer
The range of new organic nitrogen fertilizers from AVEMA, first presented at IPM 2023 a year ago, has been expanded: in addition to the slow-release fertilizer ODP N, the slightly faster-acting ODP NRK 2-4 and the even faster ODP NC 1-2 are now also available. The AVEMA ODP fertilizers consist of collagen fibers, a high-quality structural protein from the leather industry. They are easy to spread and have a low odor. In trials at the Weihenstephan University of Applied Sciences, they showed a very good N mineralization of 70%. Studies are currently being carried out at several teaching and research institutes to test the suitability of these fertilizers for various horticultural crops.

Heinrich Beltz
Landwirtschaftskammer Niedersachsen (Germany)
LVG Bad Zwischenahn

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In our production facility we produce between 6.000 and 7.000 tons of fertilizer each year. By combining top quality materials from renowned sources, we can limit our waste and provide our customers and end-users with high quality products.

As with most companies that work in our sector, demand of Mivena fertilizers is very seasonal. Therefore, in spring, we have slightly longer production times than in summer, nevertheless we strive to serve most customers within 10 business days. With our efficient production line and resource management system, we can make this deadline most of the time.

As you may have noticed on our bags, we always print the distributor or importer’s name and logo on the bag. This is possible due to our attention to detail in the production process.

We have our own laboratory where all incoming raw materials as well as all the outgoing products are tested for quality. For example, a sample of every batch of our coated products, such as Granucote and Horticote Plus, are tested by adding them to demineralized water and then placed in a controlled environment. This allows us to test the liberation of nutrients over time under a stable temperature of 25°C for 24hrs per day for the entire longevity of the products. If products do not perform to spec, we will find out quick enough.

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