Fertilizer Market Outlook 2026: What growers should prepare for

The fertilizer market forecast 2026 is already on the minds of many growers. As the year comes to an end and preparations for the new season begin, the key question is clear: what will fertilizer prices do next year? To help our partners prepare, we share a realistic and data-based forecast built on our own market experience and independent international sources.

Q4 2025
For the remainder of 2025, raw material prices are expected to stay mostly stable. A small increase in nitrogen and phosphate cannot be excluded, but no major price shocks are expected before winter.

2026: Global stabilization, European pressure
International sources forecast that global fertilizer prices will begin to stabilise in 2026. However, the fertilizer market forecast 2026 for Europe looks different: prices are expected to remain firm due to regulatory pressure and supply restrictions that are not reflected in the global average.

CBAM carbon pricing for fertilizer imports begins on 1 January 2026.
According to Rabobank, this may result in:
• 10–20% higher costs for ammonia
• 10–15% higher costs for urea
• 2–5% higher costs for DAP
The exact impact depends on supplier emissions and trade routes.

EU tariffs on Russian fertilizers have been active since July 2025.
Reuters reports that these tariffs are pushing prices upward, and buyers are already switching to more expensive suppliers to secure stock.

Energy prices, especially natural gas, remain a cost driver for nitrogen fertilizers.
Demand remains strong, and global restrictions and shifting export flows continue to limit availability.

Even if global prices soften or stabilise, these European regulations and supply dynamics may lead to a different outcome for growers inside the EU.

Expected market situation in 2026

Product (EU import perspective 2026)	Global trend 2026	EU regulatory impact	Expected effect in EU
Urea / Ammonium Nitrate (N)	Stabilizing	Higher due to CBAM and Russian tariffs	Flat to increasing
DAP / MAP (P)	Forecast –8%	Moderate CBAM impact	Likely flat
Potash (K)	Flat	Limited CBAM effect, logistics remain risk	Flat, possible upward risk

Sources: World Bank Commodity Outlook 2025/2026, Rabobank 2025, Reuters, S&P Global.

Conclusion
The fertilizer market forecast 2026 shows stabilisation worldwide, but continued upward pressure in Europe, especially for nitrogen products. To reduce price uncertainty and availability risks before spring, many growers choose to secure part of their fertilizer needs early. Early planning remains the most reliable way to avoid delays and unexpected costs during the season.

Further reading
World Bank Commodity Outlook 2025
https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/fertilizer-prices-gain-momentum-amid-strong-demand-and-geopolitical-tensions

Rabobank – Carbon Costs at the Gate (CBAM 2026)
https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011499773-carbon-costs-at-the-gate-preparing-for-the-cbams-impact-on-eu-fertilizer-prices-in-2026

Reuters – EU tariffs increasing fertilizer costs (August 2025)
https://www.reuters.com/business/european-farmers-facing-higher-costs-after-eu-tariffs-russian-fertiliser-imports-2025-08-22